In December 2010, a street vendor set himself on fire in the streets of Tunisia sparking a wave of pro-democracy protests across the Middle East and North Africa known as the Arab Spring.
By March 2011, these sentiments had spread to Syria as civilians rebelled against President Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian regime. The protests were violently suppressed by the Assad regime, only fueling dissent and motivating the creation of opposition forces.
By the end of 2011, the Syrian Civil War had started, becoming a long-standing symbol of conflict in the Middle East.
On Dec. 8, 2024, the Assad regime finally fell, ending the civil war that had ravaged the country for years. With the fall of the regime, evidence of years of human rights violations emerged as the underground dungeons of Sednaya Prison were exposed. As the country begins to heal from the infamous legacy of Assad, its future remains uncertain as a U.S.-designated terrorist group takes control of the country.
Iran
In the eyes of Iran, the fall of Assad’s Syria is especially troublesome as it deals a devastating blow to the already weakened Axis of Resistance, responsible for countering Western and Israeli influence in the region mainly through terror attacks.
Syria was a vital piece of the coalition serving as a land bridge between its leader, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. As each of its actors faces its own challenges, it can’t afford to lose such an important part of the coalition.
Hezbollah and Iran were already struggling due to Israeli and U.S. strikes, with Hamas in a similar situation and the Houthi rebels in Yemen facing their own struggles. The axis is “in tatters but has not been destroyed entirely,” according to PBS News.
The coalition will have a hard time maintaining influence in the region due to this event. Without the support of Syria, the coalition is losing a major source of power and support. It is also losing a major stronghold from which to launch terror attacks on Israel, which will only weaken it further as Israel continues to push Iran and its proxies.
Assad was also very loyal to Iran and in his absence Iran’s influence in the region is expected to decline, unsettling the delicate balance of power in Lebanon and Iraq. Even if Iran manages to broker a deal with the new leadership of Syria, it will not have the same freedom of movement to carry out Axis of Resistance activities as it did under Assad.
In the face of these mounting challenges, Iran may bolster its nuclear program to enhance its power of deterrence or it could become more open to diplomacy as its leverage decreases.
The former option is a big concern for the U.S., Europe and Israel.
Image created by Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.
Russia
Russia was a long-time supporter of Assad and Syria, essentially propping the armed forces up with military and weapons aid for the past decade.
After its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian support dwindled as more and more military assets were pulled out of Syria to aid in the war against Ukraine, majorly weakening Syria’s defense against growing rebel forces. Combined with Iran’s lessening support heavily contributed to Assad’s inability to hold off the rebels.
The regime collapse also has major implications for the Russian political scene as Putin has just lost a major asset, including complete control over its only military base in the Middle East. As a result, Russia has lost great influence within the region, possibly weakening its position in the world order and especially against the U.S.
Russia also used Syria as an access point to its assets in Africa and as a buffer zone to “block potential natural gas pipeline projects from the Persian Gulf to Europe, which could circumvent Russia,” according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Russia may try to broker a deal with the new Syrian government to maintain influence in the region, but it will still be weaker without Assad.
However, “Russia’s previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels” so the new leadership may be less inclined to accept a deal, according to National Public Radio (NPR).
Syrian Kurds
Kurdish forces, who managed to carve out a largely autonomous region in the East of Syria under Assad, with the help of the U.S., may increase their demands for autonomy and greater rights.
This might happen as the Arab rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rises to power.
The Kurds, the main allies of the U.S. in Syria and the largest ethnic minority in the country, have long been in conflict with Turkey which may become an issue as Turkey has great influence with the Sunni rebels who are now in power.
This possible alliance between the new rulers of Syria and Turkey will jeopardize the gains of the Kurds made during Assad’s rule, which has the opportunity to start another civil war within the already fragile country.
Photo by Susannah George of Associated Press.
The U.S. has, in the past, come to the aid of the Kurds with American troops stationed in eastern Syria to join forces in order to “prevent any resurgence of the Islamic State group,” according to AP News. This alliance may be in jeopardy due to President Donald Trump’s hesitance regarding US involvement in Syria.
Israel
The main concern for Israel, the U.S. and other western countries is that the rebel groups currently controlling the region will erect an Islamic state in place of Assad’s regime, which is possible despite rebel claims that they strive to create a government inclusive to all minorities.
The fall of Assad is both good and bad for Israel as his fall severely weakened the Axis of Resistance, which has been its main enemy for decades, but it also faces an unpredictable new Syrian government.
Quoting concerns about resources falling into the hands of Islamist extremists, Israel launched 480 strikes across the country in the days following Dec. 8, targeting weapon stockpiles and military infrastructure left behind by the Assad regime.
The country simultaneously moved further into the Golan Heights, including into the UN-controlled buffer zone known as the Area of Separation. This action is in violation of the “1974 UN disengagement agreement that formally ended the previous year’s Arab-Israeli war,” according to The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claims this is a temporary move until an effective force is established to enforce the agreement.
HTS has called upon Israel to withdraw forces from Syrian land and the longer military presence remains in the country, the more hostile relations are likely to become.
Image created by The Economist.
The country has vowed to use this opportunity to reshape the Middle East. The country’s main goals are to prevent the re-establishment of Iranian and proxy supply lines, a resurgence of an Islamic state and overall ensuring Israel maintains freedom of action within the region.
Turkey
Turkey likely stands to gain the most from the collapse of the Assad regime as it has been the main backer of rebel groups, including HTS, in the region for years giving it major influence with the new government.
Turkey also hosts over three million Syrian refugees and wants to see them go back home, as they have “been shouldering most of the cost of those refugees – it’s estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars,” according to NPR Journalist Fatma Tanis.
To facilitate the return of these refugees, Turkey has been working to legitimize the new Syrian government and bolster infrastructure.
Turkey’s influence also provides an opportunity for its long-sought end of Kurdish presence in Syria, which Turkey views as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency within its own borders in the 1980s. The country has repeatedly labeled the Kurds as terrorists and seeks to put an end to Kurdish power in the new Syria, which Turkey will attempt to use its influence to do.
The United States
For the last decade, about 900 American troops have remained in Syria to prevent an Islamic resurgence and aid Kurdish forces. The U.S. also carried out a number of air strikes on “a sizable group of Islamic State fighters gathered to train, perhaps hoping to take advantage of the turmoil in Syria,” according to NPR.
HTS, the rebel group currently in power, is still designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. and has been for over a decade, so the U.S. can’t work with them directly. However, before leaving office, Biden vowed to help Syrians build a new government.
President Trump, on the other hand, is weary of US involvement in the Middle East, saying “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH [Syria]” on social media, according to AP News. Trump has yet to take any significant actions in line with this statement.
However, “the U.S. is already pretty deeply involved. And the U.S. troops there are not just fighting the Islamic State. They’re also protecting civilians,” according to Journalist Greg Myre in an NPR Interview.
The U.S. also has the opportunity and leverage to “play a crucial role in shaping the country’s future trajectory,” according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
As a measure of goodwill, the U.S. has removed several sanctions placed on the country under Assad due to several human rights violations.
With a need of $250 to $450 billion to rebuild the country’s infrastructure, the U.S. and European powers are uniquely positioned to lead the rebuilding effort while gaining influence in the region.
The U.S. and Europe could leverage this fiscal power to push the new Syria towards a liberal political system with free elections that would more closely align with the views of the U.S.
This plan, however, would only work with agreement from the new leadership.
Syria
The country itself might also descend into another civil war as different rebel groups fight for authority, including between Turkey and Kurdish-led forces, or with HTS.
HTS controls Syria’s four main cities: the capital of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo, which is why it is said to control most of the country. Kurdish-led forces control a large portion of the country’s northeast. Turkish-backed rebels control sections of land along the Turkish border in the North, often clashing with neighboring Kurdish forces.
Various other Syrian rebel groups control small sections of land in the South surrounding the US outpost and the Southwest next to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. HTS, having control over most of the country’s strategic points, will likely maintain control over the country but may run into issues with Kurdish forces which control a sizable portion of land.
Image created by the Institute for the Study of War.
Surrounding Arab states, on the other hand, are most worried about the possible ripple effect the success of the Syrian rebellion may have in igniting rebellions within those countries.
As a result, surrounding countries may try to prevent rebel groups from maintaining power to destroy the illusion of a successful rebellion.
As a new power emerges in the region, power and security dynamics may shift which will further jeopardize already tense relations within the Middle East.
Regardless of what happens, the end of the Assad regime will still be considered one of the most influential events in the Middle East in modern years.
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