Citizens across the United States just voted in one of the most unprecedented elections in American history. During the weeks leading up to the election, discussions on every news network and political podcast consisted solely of predicting and discussing how a specific set of seven states will vote: These states go by multiple names: swing states, battleground states, or purple states. Purple states are “electorally competitive because their political opinion is relatively evenly split between Democratic and Republican voters.” To become president, the candidate essentially must win more of these states than their competitor: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. In 2016, President Donald Trump won six of these seven, and President Joe Biden did the same (but with a different combination of states) four years later in 2020. These states were front and center on every news site come election night. However, one state that used to consistently be characterized as a swing state was not even discussed this election cycle: Florida.
For the eight presidential elections prior to 2024, Florida had cemented itself as a swing state. Not a single candidate had won the Sunshine State by more than 5.70 percentage points, even in 1996 when incumbent President Bill Clinton won nationwide by 8.51 percentage points and in 2008 when President Barack Obama won nationwide by 7.26 percentage points. 2000 was the closest race when President George W. Bush won the state by only 0.01 percentage points (537 votes) after the Supreme Court ordered an end to a recount in Florida. Four of the last nine elections have been decided by only less than two percentage points. The graph below shows the percentage of Florida votes that each presidential candidate received since 1968. Notice how since 1992 the lines have deviated from each other very little. Florida has proven again and again how close the races in its state are. It has also proven how important it is for presidential hopefuls to win the state. After all, every eventual presidential winner from 1992 to 2020 but one has had to win the Sunshine State.
So why is Florida no longer considered a swing state?
Fig. 1: Presidential Elections in Florida.
First, Florida has elected an overwhelming number of Republicans in the last few years. Trump’s 2020 victory was an impressive one, with him being the first candidate to win more than half of the state’s votes (51.11%) since Obama did in 2008 (50.91%). Floridians have also elected supermajorities in the Florida Senate and House of Representatives with 28 to 12 and 84 to 36 respectively. Moreover, Floridians adore Governor Ron DeSantis, giving him a 52% approval rate against his national approval rate of only 32%. Within his party, DeSantis has an 89% approval rating statewide.
Second, Florida is akin to a Republican version of California. Essentially, Republicans can consider Florida in the same manner that many Democrats consider California: a state that is sure to vote for their party no matter the candidate. Additionally, Florida is now becoming a laboratory of democracy for Republican officials nationwide, much like California is for Democrats. Due to having control of all three state branches, Florida Republicans have been able to shape the legislative landscape of the state from school choice and classroom transparency to banning abortions after six weeks and implementing penalties for gender-affirming care. The national Republican agenda is seen in action in Florida.
Third, one of the most important demographics in Florida is leaning more and more right year by year: the Hispanic vote. In 2020, Hispanic people made up more than a quarter (26.5%) of Florida’s population, and 53.8% of the state’s population growth (that includes immigration and births) came from this community. Historically, Floridian Hispanics have voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates, but the tides have changed due to a “prolonged, sustained, and sophisticated effort by the Republican Party.” Much of the trend rightward has come from immigrants having a shared sentiment that Democrats are “following the same script that led to the downfall of [their] home countr[ies].“
This shift is most accentuated in Miami-Dade County, where 68.7% of the population is Hispanic. The county voted for Democratic candidates Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004, but not by crazy margins. However, Democrats received a wealth of votes from the county in the next three elections when Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton ran. The county once again went to Democrats in 2020, but only by 7.33 percentage points.
The 2022 midterm elections were when this shift became most apparent: Republicans flipped Miami-Dade red for the first time since the 2002 midterms. They voted for Desantis by an overwhelming 11.3 percentage points and Senator Marco Rubio by 9.45 percentage points. The graph below shows how Miami-Dade has voted in every presidential and gubernatorial election since the year 2000. Notice that the last time a Republican won the county was when Governor Jeb Bush did so in 2002. A very popular candidate statewide, Governor Bush won the county by 6.49 percentage points. Historically a guaranteed win for the Democratic party, Miami-Dade County has slowly started to shift to the right.
Fig. 2: Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections in Miami-Dade County.
The state’s shift to red can also be attributed to many people moving to Florida for its political climate. This exodus of Republican voters often comes from the Northeast, and they deem Florida as their promised land of conservative living. These movers tend to be white, older, and wealthier, demographics that are “disproportionately Republican.” Having witnessed the Republican agenda alive and in action in the Sunshine State, these citizens decided they wanted a piece of the action.
The political polarization that the United States is experiencing makes it increasingly harder to live in a region with leaders and people whose political beliefs and decisions you do not align with. Consequently, many would rather relocate their lives to another state than live in one where they are deemed political outcasts.
So, what reasons are there to support the argument that Florida is no longer a swing state? A state’s “political opinion [must be] relatively evenly split between Democratic and Republican voters.” Although Florida certainly has a more diverse political landscape than other parts of the country, its citizens’ general tendency to hold more conservative views is reflected in the Republican supermajorities in both legislative branches. Additionally, 2020 was the first election where the eventual winner did not have to win Florida, and although that is not a requirement of a swing state, it certainly is a telling sign that candidates no longer think of Florida as a must-win state.
Fig. 3: Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections in Miami-Dade County with 2024 Results.
Fig. 4: Presidential Elections in Florida with 2024 Results.
The most compelling piece of evidence for this argument is President-elect Trump’s performance in the 2024 election. Many political scientists generally consider swing states as such if the winner receives under five percentage points. In 2020, President Trump won by only 3.36 percentage points, but he increased that victory to an impressive 13.06 percentage points in 2024. Above are the same graphs from earlier but with the percentage points from 2024 added. In Miami-Dade County, President Trump won by 9.43 percentage points. Although this is less than Governor Desantis’s 11.31 percentage points in 2022, Republicans did manage to hold on to Miami-Dade County, a feat many would have considered impossible only a few years ago. The second graph shows how President-elect Trump has improved on each victory since his freshman campaign in 2016.
From their supermajorities in the legislative branches to President-elect Trump’s three, back-to-back wins, Republicans have dominated the Sunshine State. The last Democrat to be elected statewide was Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in 2018, and it does not look likely that any other will receive a similar victory soon. From those fleeing blue states to the growing Hispanic population, every demographic in Florida is shifting to the right. The Republican Party has found in Florida a state that will not only legislate in a manner fitting to the party but also will vote overwhelmingly for any republican candidate. The Florida of 2024 is drastically different from the one that President Bush won by only 537 votes in 2000.
No longer are the days of Florida being a swing state; it is now the “Republican California.”
Check out other recent articles from the Florida Political Review here.
